Election Day this year will determine who holds the keys to influential executive mansions across the country. Thirty-six states have gubernatorial contests on the ballot, and the results in November will determine whether Democrats control a majority of the nation’s governorships for the first time since 2010 or whether Republicans maintain the numeric advantage they’ve largely held over the last three decades.
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The GOP currently controls 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24, and each party holds 18 of the 36 seats at stake in 2026. A Democratic majority is a real possibility on the heels of these midterms, but Republicans aren’t out of the hunt yet.
Our gubernatorial ratings are based on demographic and polling data, as well as historical trends and the perspectives of dozens of political observers across the country.
We’ve taken a look at the Republican-leaning seats and which seats look like a toss-up. Here, we’re examining where Democrats appear to have the advantage.
Lean Democratic (5 races)
Iowa: Open seat (Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is retiring)
Reynolds’ lackluster approval in Iowa and the blue political midterm environment – exacerbated by high fuel and fertilizer prices in this farm-heavy state – gives Democrats a strong opportunity to flip the governorship. State Auditor Rob Sand, a proven statewide candidate, faces surprise Republican primary winner Zach Lahn, who is new to running for office. Sand is criticizing Lahn for residency ties to Kansas, and has led consistently in recent polls.
Oregon: Gov. Tina Kotek (D)
Kotek is not very popular, but that’s been common for Democratic governors of Oregon and the party has still won. She’ll also likely get a boost from this year’s blue environment. At the same time, the GOP’s 2022 nominee, Christine Drazan, came close to beating Kotek four years ago and is the nominee again. Polling shows a tight race despite Oregon’s blue politics.
Arizona: Gov. Katie Hobbs (D)
Hobbs is her party’s most vulnerable incumbent. She has repeatedly clashed with the GOP-controlled state Legislature and faces Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, a staunch conservative. Hobbs is consistently leading in general election polls.
Michigan: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited)
Michigan Democrats are defending an open seat in the battleground state, as Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Republican U.S. Rep. John James. Benson has put together bigger and more consistent leads than her party’s more controversial Democratic Senate nominee, Abdul El-Sayed.
New Mexico: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited)
Democrat Deb Haaland, President Joe Biden’s interior secretary, has an edge over Republican Gregg Hull, the former mayor of Rio Rancho. But it’s worth watching whether Hull’s efforts to paint himself as a moderate make this race more competitive than New Mexico’s overall Democratic profile and the blue midterm environment suggest.
Likely Democratic (3 races)
Maine: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Janet Mills is term-limited)
Democrat Hannah Pingree, daughter of U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree and a former state House speaker, holds consistent and sizable leads over Republican Bobby Charles, a former assistant secretary of state under President George W. Bush who has distanced himself from Trump less than GOP Sen. Susan Collins, who faces a competitive race this year.
Minnesota: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is retiring)
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic nominee, has proved she can win votes. And by serving in Washington, she has some distance from the allegations of widespread fraud under Walz’s watch that have marred his second term. Klobuchar faces a credible candidate in GOP state House Speaker Lisa Demuth, but is a clear favorite.
Pennsylvania: Gov. Josh Shapiro (D)
Shapiro faces Stacy Garrity, the Republican state treasurer, but the incumbent is well-known and broadly popular in Pennsylvania. He’ll aim to assemble a victory strong enough to flip the GOP-controlled state Senate, too.
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Safe Democratic (9 races)
Connecticut: Gov. Ned Lamont (D)
Lamont, who is seeking a third term, has led the state as a pragmatic Democrat. The Republican nominee – state Sen. Ryan Fazio – is attacking Lamont on energy costs and taxes, but he faces a steep climb in a blue state, especially in this year’s blue midterm environment.
Rhode Island: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Dan McKee was defeated for renomination)
Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive who lost to McKee by just 3 points in 2022, denied the incumbent the nomination in the Democratic primary. Her main general election competition comes from Aaron Guckian, a Republican and former executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association, and independent Ken Block. In this solidly blue state, Foulkes should win easily.
New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D)
Hochul faces Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. She’s led in polling by high single-digit margins or better.
Illinois: Gov. JB Pritzker (D)
Pritzker, a deep-pocketed potential 2028 presidential candidate, faces downstate social conservative Darren Bailey, whom he easily beat in 2022.
Maryland: Gov. Wes Moore (D)
Moore should easily win a second term over former state lawmaker Dan Cox, a MAGA-aligned Republican who lost to Moore four years ago by a 2-1 margin.
California: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited)
After a wild top-two primary race, this contest has settled down into one where California’s Democratic advantage should carry nominee Xavier Becerra – the former head of Health and Human Services in the Biden administration – to victory in November over Republican and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton.
Massachusetts: Gov. Maura Healey (D)
In solidly blue Massachusetts, Healey is heavily favored over military veteran and former medical device technology executive Mike Minogue, the Republican nominee.
Hawaii: Gov. Josh Green (D)
Green, a physician, is heavily favored to win reelection over GOP nominee and anti-vaccination figure Gary Cordery.
Colorado: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is term-limited)
Attorney General Phil Weiser defeated U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet for the Democratic nomination. He should be an easy winner over Christian ministry founder Victor Marx, who has said his stepfather forced him to kill a man when he was 7 years old.
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