Fewer American voters plan to cast mail-in or absentee ballots this year – and the drop is especially pronounced among Democrats who are voting via the U.S. Postal Service, according to a poll released today by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.
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The shift comes after years of President Donald Trump’s assaults on mail-in votes. The president himself has voted by mail. But he has – without any evidence – repeatedly condemned the practice as vulnerable to election fraud.
Democrats (34%) are still twice as likely as Republicans (17%) to vote by mail or absentee. But just 15% of Democrats say they plan to vote, or have already voted, by returning a ballot through the mail, down from 21% in 2024 and 22% in 2022, Pew found.
The findings give everyone another reason to be cautious about interpreting early election returns. Democrats’ heavier use of mail-in voting means later returns have always skewed left, but they now likely won’t skew as far.
Confidence in Counting Votes
Democratic voters are more confident than Republican voters that mail-in ballots will be counted as intended – but their confidence has plummeted. It was 88% in the 2022 midterms and 85% among Kamala Harris voters in 2024. It’s now 64%. (Just 42% of GOP voters say the same.)
There is, however, strong bipartisan confidence that in-person votes will be counted accurately – 81% of voters supporting Democratic candidates say so, and 84% of those supporting GOP candidates share that belief.
The Pew survey was conducted before the Justice Department announced Oct. 15 it was suing California to stop the state from counting mail ballots returned by people the Trump administration says are not U.S. citizens.
Intimidation
Talk to Democratic elected officials inside the Beltway, and you’ll hear concerns that Trump could deploy armed federal officials to the polls to intimidate voters. Talk to the Homeland Security secretary and you’ll hear the same, minus the concerns and intimidation parts.
Pew found solid bipartisan majorities are confident that anyone attempting to scare voters at polling places will be stopped – though supporters of Republican candidates (74%) are more confident than Democratic-leaning voters (61%).
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There’s an interesting – but perhaps not surprising – partisan gap about what might go poorly.
Roughly 1 in 5 Republican voters express concerns about illegitimate voters casting ballots. Among Democratic voters, roughly 1 in 10 worries about legitimate voters being disenfranchised, and a similar number worries the Trump administration will interfere.
Election Security
Pew found only half of voters think U.S. election systems are safe from hacking and other technological threats. And there’s been a shift since 2024.
Back then, 32% of Republicans said as much. Now, 47% say the same.
Among Democrats, 73% said we are safe from tech threats in 2024. That number has dropped to 60%.
I Cannot Stop Laughing
I love you, Americans Who Talk To Pew. But you say the darndest things: 70% of Democratic voters say they think we’ll know who won the election within a day or two, compared to 61% of GOP voters.
I hope to be proven wrong, but between state dysfunction (like requirements that mail-in votes be tallied only after Election Day in-person votes) and what I expect to be a blizzard of court cases challenging processes and outcomes, this timeline strikes me as incredibly optimistic.
Hurry up and wait, in other words. As the old line goes: The only poll that matters is on Election Day.
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