Months of bitter infighting among Democratic Party leadership culminates in Michigan on Tuesday with a high-stakes Senate primary in which the fate of the upper chamber may hang in the balance.
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Republicans currently hold a narrow advantage in the Senate, but Democrats are hoping to take control of the chamber this fall. Nearly every poll shows former public health official Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Rep. Haley Stevens in the party’s primary to take on former Rep. Mike Rogers in November.
Pitting the progressive El-Sayed against the mainstream Stevens, the primary has become a test of the Democratic Party’s ongoing ideological schism that has already divided leadership in several other primary races.
In a state that flipped for President Donald Trump in 2024, keeping retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat blue is likely to be an uphill battle. That’s why picking the most broadly appealing candidate is crucial to success, some Democrats contend. Others insist that voters want candidates who put forth bold new ideas.
Here’s what to keep an eye on as results roll out:
Who Are The Candidates?
Stevens’ entry into congressional politics involved flipping a red district in Michigan during the 2018 midterms – a level of centrism that top Democrats in the state and the Capitol see as crucial to widespread success. Top Democrats like Peters and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer have endorsed Stevens, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying she has “the best chance to win.”
Stevens has centered her platform around industrial policy and her record as an effective bipartisan legislator. A self-described “manufacturing geek,” Stevens often highlights her work as chief of staff for President Barack Obama’s Auto Rescue Task Force in Detroit. Although the former president has endorsed Stevens for House races in the past, he hasn’t weighed in on the Senate race.
Polls are increasingly turning in favor of El-Sayed, a physician and former director of the Wayne County Department of Health, Human and Veterans Services.
El-Sayed previously lost a primary bid for governor to Whitmer in 2018. The son of an Egyptian immigrant, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim senator if elected in November.
El-Sayed’s platform has been defined by a central campaign slogan: “Money out of politics. Money in your pockets. Medicare for All.” The phrase refers to a program that would provide government-funded healthcare for every United States citizen. El-Sayed has said the program would be funded by redirecting military spending and levying taxes on billionaires.
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Ideological Splits
The differences in each candidate’s platform highlight a national divide between progressives and establishment Democrats. The most pointed debate on the campaign trail has been over Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza. El-Sayed has accused the Israeli government of committing genocide and has admitted to struggling with questions around Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. Stevens has accused El-Sayed of refusing Israel’s right to exist and has firmly defended her congressional votes to continue sending the country military funding.
The two have also differed on how to reform Immigration and Customs Enforcement. El-Sayed has called for ICE to be abolished entirely, while Stevens believes in reforming the agency and holding agents accountable for crimes. When it comes to El-Sayed’s “Medicare For All” platform, Stevens believes in “working in the system we have” and expanding existing programs rather than widespread restructuring.
Attacks on All Sides
In recent weeks, debate between the two candidates has gotten nasty. El-Sayed called Stevens “the least capable candidate in America” in an interview with Muslim Girl. Stevens fired back on social media.
“You lost by over 20 points to Gretchen Whitmer and you will lose to Mike Rogers by talking like this,” Stevens wrote in a social media post. “Everyone in America understands you want to blame all of your problems on Jewish Americans.”
El-Sayed has also been accused of sexism by various politicians and attack ads, quoting his rebuttals of Stevens and an op-ed he wrote criticizing former first lady Michelle Obama’s anti-obesity campaign. The candidate has labeled the claims as a derogatory stereotype against Middle Eastern men.
The bitter back-and-forth between the candidates brings up an important question for tomorrow and beyond: Will Democrats be able to reunite under a single candidate after such bruising competition?
The Money Question
The Michigan race has unequivocally become one of the most expensive in the country, with over $60 million in campaign spending coming from outside sources alone. Nearly all of that spending is in support of Stevens, who has outspent El-Sayed by more than 12-1. The congresswoman has come under fire for receiving roughly $30 million in backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC. The funding deepens the two candidates’ ideological divide over Israel.
The funding has also complicated matters for AIPAC, as a majority of American adults now view Israel unfavorably. The super PAC has attempted to distance itself from a pro-Israel image by funneling money into smaller, innocuously named PACs like United Democracy Project and Elect Chicago Women. AIPAC has reached unprecedented levels of spending in this election cycle, with nearly half of the $67 million it’s spent going to the Michigan race.
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