From Michigan to Mississippi, Republicans Scramble to Avoid a Blue Wave

Campaign movements in recent days are revealing a stark midterm picture for Republicans: Several GOP-held seats are in jeopardy, and Democrats are seeking to make gains in red states with less than two weeks until Election Day.

Party leaders are deploying heavy hitters like President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris to key battlegrounds, with some hoping to flip seats and others looking to urgently defend them.

The last-minute travel comes as Democrats appear to have a substantial opportunity to take control of the Senate. House control appears all but guaranteed – political forecasting site Race to the White House shows a better than 90% chance of a Democratic majority in the lower chamber.

“When we see where people are spending their time, which is the most precious resource in the political campaign, that tells us exactly what their internal polls are telling them,” said Todd Belt, a political management professor at George Washington University. “The Democrats are trying to pick up as many seats as they can, and the Republicans are just trying to stop the bleeding.”

Here’s a look at some of the key states where party leaders are rallying for support:

Mississippi

Incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a surprising battle in the Magnolia State as Democratic candidate Scott Colom campaigned with Harris on Thursday. The Cook Political Report shifted its projection of the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” earlier this week.

A moderate Democrat, Colom has already drawn support from prominent Democrats like Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Senate Majority PAC, a key Democratic super PAC, announced Thursday it will launch a $1.2 million ad campaign in support of Colom.

But Republicans have their own plans. The Republican National Committee announced Wednesday that Trump will hold a rally in the state next week. The last-minute decision shows a potential fear of fallout in a state Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024.

Kansas

The Sunflower State hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in more than 90 years – but that could change with pastor Adam Hamilton, who is seeking to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Trump campaigned in the region Monday night, telling audience members the state was “tending toward the purple.”

The contest extends to funding, too – Hamilton reportedly raised $11 million to Marshall’s $800,000 in the third quarter. Belt said Republicans’ struggle in former Trump states is a referendum on the economy.

“If you look at the price of gasoline, as well as some other consumer goods, people are frustrated,” Belt said. “They don’t like being told that the economy is good when they know it’s not, because they see what’s in their wallets, and this is what the president is running headlong into.”

South Carolina

Trump’s Wednesday night rally supporting Darline Graham was interrupted by 11 protesters and one fistfight before the president left the stage. The Palmetto State has become a partisan flashpoint – the main PAC supporting Senate Republicans sent a $5 million “insurance policy” earlier this month, while Democratic candidate Annie Andrews raised over $9 million.

Graham was appointed to the Senate seat after her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, died in July. Her late addition to the campaign, in combination with a lack of experience and Andrews’ dominant spending, has Republicans worried about the once-safe seat.

Michigan

Obama is slated to appear at a campaign rally in the Wolverine State this weekend in support of Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York also campaigned with El-Sayed and contributed $1 million to his campaign earlier this month, a massive sum for a House member to transfer to an out-of-state candidate that prompted speculation about a potential presidential bid in 2028.

The Senate race has repeatedly made headlines this election cycle as one of the most contested open seats – El-Sayed would become the first Muslim senator in American history if elected. But polling shows a razor-thin margin between him and Republican candidate Rep. Mike Rogers.

“The president has done well in Michigan in the past, and [Republicans] have a pretty well-known candidate there who’s already run for Senate once and has been a member of the House,” Belt said.

Ohio

Obama also plans to travel to the neighboring Buckeye State this weekend to support Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton and Senate candidate Sherrod Brown. The latter looks to return to the Senate after losing his reelection to Bernie Moreno. Brown now looks to unseat incumbent Sen. Jon Husted.

Trump appeared in the state last week to rally for Husted, focusing much of his speech on Somali and Haitian immigrants.

Acton’s opponent and former presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy found himself at the center of a political firestorm earlier this week after confessing to funding an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother. Current Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, urged Ramaswamy to pull the ad, while Vice President JD Vance told GOP critics to “stop whining” about it.

Georgia

Trump will hold a rally in the Peach State this weekend to support Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson, who will miss the central Georgia event to campaign in Atlanta. Trump previously urged voters in the state to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, in a race that is now virtually tied.

Obama will stop in the state next week in support of Jackson’s opponent, Keisha Lance Bottoms. The former Atlanta mayor would become the first Black woman governor in American history if elected.

Obama’s visit will also include campaigning with incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, whose seat was once seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic openings in this cycle. Harris will also campaign next week with Ossoff, who currently holds a sizable lead in the race.