New polling and analysis released this week has encouraging signs for Democrats and Republicans, leaving the overall impression that control of both houses of Congress remains up in the air.
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Data published Thursday morning by The New York Times and Siena polling puts Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire both ahead of their GOP rivals by 5 points.
Meanwhile in Maine, Sen. Susan Collins, who has long been regarded as the Republicans’ most vulnerable 2026 incumbent, now leads Troy Jackson by 3 points in her quest for a sixth term in Washington.
The Times/Siena poll surveyed 1,837 likely voters across the three battleground states, with the outcome in all three being either within or just outside the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.
The new poll gives El-Sayed – a progressive who has faced questions about whether he can win over mainstream voters – a slightly wider margin in Michigan than the average tracked by Nate Silver on his new polling website FLIPR. Silver shows El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 3.3 points on average. Silver’s assessment of New Hampshire, however, is similar to the Times/Siena poll.
In other key races Silver’s averages put Democrat James Talarico 3.4 points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas and has Democrats leading in Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia. In an analysis published this week, Silver theorizes that rapidly rising diesel prices may be fueling Democratic gains in states with large rural and farming populations.
Nationally, diesel costs are now above $6.50 per gallon.
Silver’s findings broadly agree with those being reported by another widely respected political prediction source, Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball project at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Sabato’s latest Senate ratings favor the Democrats on 48 seats and the Republicans on 47, with five seats (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas) rated as toss-ups. Notably, Sabato has changed his Michigan rating from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”
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He also detected movement away from the GOP in several governors races, moving both Nevada and Ohio from “leans Republican” to “toss-up” in his latest forecast. In the House, he gives Democrats a 211-203 edge with 21 toss-ups.
Hispanic voters are likely to be a key factor in a number of states this November. After a 2024 cycle in which Republicans made significant gains among Hispanic voters, much of that progress appears to be eroding, according to a recent analysis by The Economist.
New analysis by Reuters finds that slipping Hispanic support may also end up costing the GOP several House seats in Texas, including ones that midterm redistricting by the Texas legislature had sought to shift toward the GOP.
In Missouri, uncertainty still surrounds the question of which congressional district map voters will use this year, despite some mail ballots already having been sent out. The issue is now before the Supreme Court for the third time.
With less than six weeks to go, however, much could change. Coordinated national spending by the GOP has surged just in the last few weeks, and many key races remain within or near the margin of error in most surveys.
And it goes without saying that in any election a lot can change over the course of a month and a half.
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