As President Trump hits the trail this month ahead of the midterm elections, Republican candidates face a key question: Should they choose to campaign alongside the unpopular commander in chief or stay away?
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“I thought I was finished campaigning, but in order to help Republicans – because we need the votes. We have to have the votes,” Trump said Wednesday.
Still, some in the GOP are privately willing to acknowledge the conundrum that their candidates face.
“It is a big problem for everybody. He is like the uncle at Thanksgiving you don’t want there, but you cannot not invite him,” one veteran Republican donor told U.S. News.
In his first stops of the month – Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska – the president is heading to areas more friendly to Republicans, where he is more popular, and to states he previously won.
His Thursday and Friday rallies also fall in media markets where there are close races in neighboring states.
“His campaign stops in Oklahoma and Alabama allow him to boost candidates who are on the statewide ballot for the first time while also making an impact in target races in Texas and Florida,” a Republican official who asked for anonymity to speak about strategy told U.S. News.
Republican officials vow Trump and Vice President JD Vance will not avoid the battleground states, forcing some of the more vulnerable candidates to choose whether to appear on stage with him.
“The headwinds are very powerful against the president – the Iran war, affordability,” said Paul Beck, professor of political science at Ohio State University. “If the race is close, they don’t want to turn off some voters they might get.”
Some GOP candidates in close Senate races – Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Michael Whatley in North Carolina, incumbent Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio and Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska – are deciding to campaign with Trump.
“We look forward to hosting President Trump in Ohio this weekend,” Amy Natoce, a Husted campaign spokeswoman, told The New York Times.
Trump’s rally Saturday is in Dayton, Ohio. His Monday rally is in Grand Island, Nebraska. So far, he is campaigning in more Republican-concentrated areas.
“It is tricky. You have to thread the needle – have him in a ruby red district but keep him out of a metro area where he is going to turn off persuadable voters,” said the donor who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Some Republican candidates, however, are keeping their distance.
“John’s focus the entire campaign has been on New Hampshire and [he] doesn’t plan to campaign with anyone from outside New Hampshire,” said Mike Schrimpf, a spokesman for John Sununu’s Senate campaign.
Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who has disagreed with Trump on several issues, previously told the Times she had no plans to campaign with him.
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Nevertheless, with control of Congress on the line, the president’s advisers promise to engage.
“The president and vice president will absolutely be campaigning in battleground states, including Texas, Florida, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio,” the Republican official said.
Dan Schnur, former Republican operative and current professor at University of California, Berkeley, noted that swing voters in competitive states are very down on Trump right now. On the other hand, he said the party base might not forgive a candidate for distancing themselves from him.
“His presence is a reminder. It is a reminder to staunch conservatives why they like him and for more centrist voters why they don’t,” he said.
Beck called the situation “unusual.”
“The president of the unpopular party is likely to stay away. But that’s not true this time,” he said. “Trump goes where he wants to go.”
Several of the analysts say a key to the effectiveness of a Trump campaign stop is his message. They say that if he focuses on affordability, then it can help candidates. They add that if he is undisciplined and off-message, it can create a liability.
“Those who need to reach out to the center are quietly hoping he will stay away,” Schnur said.
Another factor complicating the decision for candidates: Turnout is historically lower in mid-term races.
“In a very tight race, an extra percent or two could swing the race in one direction or the other,” Beck said.
Recognizing they cannot change the views of many voters toward the president and how many of the races have been nationalized, Republican leaders are also trying to make sure Trump’s supporters don’t sit out the election.
“Driving turnout has been key to our strategy for this cycle,” the Republican official said. “The goal is to drive turnout in strategic areas to get low-propensity Republican voters to the polls.”
So in many cases, a GOP candidate’s decision whether or not to appear with Trump will come down to individual races, districts and needs.
“He absolutely can gin up the base and raise money for local candidates, but you have to use him selectively and not create additional problems,” added the donor.
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