President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened to “annihilate” Iran if he can’t reach a peace deal, a historically unusual bit of saber rattling from the U.N. General Assembly podium.
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It came amid a busy week for U.S. foreign policy that included talks with leaders of Britain, France, Japan, Ukraine and Venezuela. The centerpiece is a state dinner Thursday for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
But as Trump tries to set the national agenda, the past few days brought reminders that American politicians ultimately process world affairs through a basic lens: How does this hit voters’ wallets?
Suddenly, more Republican candidates are breaking with the deeply unpopular president and explicitly connecting his war with Iran to the soaring price of diesel at the pump. Some who had previously strongly supported the campaign now say it’s time for the conflict to end.
Mike Rogers
Consider the case of Mike Rogers, who was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee while in Congress and has been hawkish on Iran for years.
Just months ago, Rogers, now the Republican nominee for Senate from Michigan, told a local television interviewer he wanted a “quick conclusion” to the war but that the conflict was “a win-win-win for us.”
But on Monday, Rogers posted a video on social media in which he bluntly declared, “The war with Iran needs to end – and end quickly. When it does, energy costs will plummet.”
Rogers called for a temporary ban on American diesel exports. He did not mention Trump or directly criticize the president’s handling of the war. But drawing a straight line between the war and higher consumer costs amounted to a pretty sharp break with the White House.
Ashley Hinson
Or consider Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican from Iowa who is running for Senate. She voted repeatedly this year against House measures calling for an end to the conflict.
On Monday, though, Hinson sang in a different register, posting on social media: “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran. We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices.”
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Like Rogers, she called for restrictions on diesel exports and a range of other economic responses – without directly criticizing the White House.
Again, what’s telling here is that a Republican candidate is blaming the Iran war for high fuel prices – something Trump has explicitly rejected, saying Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities are driving up costs.
There Are Others
We have yet to see mass defections on Iran by Republicans in Congress. But Iran War skepticism seems to be growing on the GOP side – enough to muscle a resolution calling on Trump to end the conflict to passage.
Rep. Zach Nunn, another Iowa Republican in a competitive district, declared, “Having deployed multiple times and flown over 700 combat hours in the Middle East, I will not support another open-ended war. We can defend Americans, pressure Iran and pursue peace while ensuring Congress fulfills its constitutional responsibility.” Nunn had voted against previous resolutions pushing to end the war.
The ‘Why’ of It
Yes, clearly some of this is GOP candidates in competitive districts looking for daylight between themselves and a deeply unpopular president waging a deeply unpopular war. And we can’t ignore that these breaks come as Republicans worry Democrats could retake at least the House.
As we noted earlier this week, a new NBC poll found 62% of Americans say the war has not been worth it, and 57% said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports it.
Those kinds of numbers mean we could see more defections in the weeks before the election.
That’s not to say that Trump can’t prize some diplomatic successes from this week. Certainly all eyes are on his meeting with Xi amid tensions over trade and AI. But in a midterm election year, the foreign policy mandate is less likely to be drafted in Washington, and more likely to be printed at the bottom of your gas station receipt.
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